Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 174.485836 212.304309 259.408164 323.539422 410.439245 5.269687e+02 7.002839e+02
2025-01-26 138.379535 184.930623 251.101691 356.412681 529.042488 8.203774e+02 1.401795e+03
2025-02-02 117.178793 167.032259 244.866089 384.275328 651.312074 1.205835e+03 2.705877e+03
2025-02-09 102.302021 153.099239 238.370676 406.488295 775.030430 1.706442e+03 5.219801e+03
2025-02-16 90.482086 140.667887 229.932187 420.534096 890.952808 2.325396e+03 1.017413e+04
2025-02-23 80.998860 129.921598 221.240633 430.115181 1004.101475 3.109204e+03 2.094565e+04
2025-03-02 71.529198 117.320362 205.828976 418.893840 1055.224946 3.777630e+03 3.967498e+04
2025-03-09 63.901969 106.813576 192.275293 407.431144 1100.421010 4.542666e+03 8.145701e+04
2025-03-16 57.181765 97.008826 178.224726 390.196651 1117.069272 5.235684e+03 1.706721e+05
2025-03-23 55.642879 97.027660 185.239798 431.950176 1390.730311 8.636348e+03 2.471816e+06
2025-03-30 51.982140 92.212914 180.397594 438.335429 1529.623000 1.178689e+04 1.096817e+09
2025-04-06 49.399719 89.260141 179.320783 456.137701 1747.651106 1.780059e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 45.452044 83.108050 169.880898 445.498753 1820.766978 2.297652e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 44.676533 83.738028 177.564262 497.459663 2355.513127 5.272529e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 43.450394 83.178789 182.092777 541.296009 2951.552687 1.340453e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 41.937077 81.740413 183.953344 576.454242 3593.039593 4.048912e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 40.138238 79.387885 182.769942 598.822925 4205.930244 1.545775e+06 NaN
2025-05-18 38.304558 76.722590 180.169735 614.145817 4823.594267 1.139515e+07 NaN
2025-05-25 35.840823 72.245607 171.373387 596.207423 4971.308873 7.619441e+07 NaN
2025-06-01 33.611041 68.136023 163.090081 577.962093 5093.997413 8.944593e+09 NaN
2025-06-08 31.392717 63.854692 153.670845 550.682539 5022.003605 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 31.299135 64.916109 161.211788 617.086854 6961.887607 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 30.084463 62.968839 158.724269 627.335316 7905.281318 NaN NaN